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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It often functions as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

But the latest race is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and recent strugglers improving collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still