A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
